The Coming Asymptote

There's this faction of the science and computer world that believes that we are approaching a singularity. The prediction is that either technology becomes sentient or human intelligence is greatly amplified where such technology becomes self-replicating. That this new intelligence will be vastly superior to normal human intelligence - and that we'll no longer be the dominant lifeform on the planet. This theory relies on two conceits. First, all predictions use Moore's Law to project a future of massively powerful computers. Second, that we really understand intelligence and, thus, how to create it.

While I'll leave the artificial intelligence thing for another time... Right now I'm beginning to think that we are seeing technology become more asymptotal - that is, we are hitting a point here processing power is leveling off rather than increasing. For example, Windows Vista has been a flop - partly because of people having issues and partly because it really didn't provide anything better than Windows XP, it just required greater processing power. Windows 7 is likely to suffer a similar fate. We are also seeing the same thing with NetBooks. People are finding that faster doesn't equate to better. That maybe lighter weight and longer untethered use is better. If you read the reviews of Netbooks, most barely bother with benchmarks because they are all almost identical. Even newer revisions, like the Asus Seashell, doesn't offer any more computing power over older models. This ComputerWorld piece is a very good example - Intel is releasing a new Atom CPU that provides no significant processing improvements over the old Atom -but does provide greater power savings.