Obama in the Southeast

I mentioned my experience in the power of race in elections before - when I discussed a really bad situation where a McCain/Rice ticket would triumph over a Clinton/? ticket. I think we are about to see a demonstration of the power of the disempowered.

My favorite poll monger website is 538. They do a good job of aggregating the statistics. But their statistics are still based on voluntary polls. If the Census constantly struggles to accurately assess the numbers of disempowered, how can these polls claim to accurately reflect their votes?

I predict an Obama win in South Carolina, Georgia and possibly Mississippi and Louisiana. For instance, South Carolina is 30% black by the 2000 Census (which, by all knowledgeable estimates is an undercount). This population will turn out in record numbers - likely well about 90%. Assuming 90% of the black population in South Carolina turns out in favor of Obama, he only needs about a third of the white vote to win. Sure, South Carolina is strongly Republican among white voters. But even in Utah, the most "red" state in the country, Kerry managed 26% of the vote in 2004. If Obama has greater appeal to white South Carolinians as Kerry did to Utahns, it's practically a shoe-in.

This has far reaching consequences because the turn-out will impact the Senate and House. These states are considered "safe" for Republicans in Congress. I bet that a couple of these states end up with Democrats in Congress as fall out from the Obama turn-out.